"Don't Come Around Here No More"

Hey! Don't come around here no more
Don't come around here no more
Whatever you're looking for
Hey! Don't come around here no more

I've given up, stop. I 've given up, stop.
I've given up, stop. On waiting any longer
I've given up, on this love getting stronger 

"Don't Come Around Here No More" by Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers

Watch it on YouTube:

Don't Come Around Here No More

A little Tom Petty in honor of this weekends new Alice in Wonderland movie.

Sometimes I feel like we all live in wonderland; recently I had the chance to see the new Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, on CNBC and I must say I am impressed. He is a no nonsense kind of guy who is simply taking an axe to the New Jersey budget. He is cutting $2 billion from a budget with $6 billion in balances, he is cutting 375 different state programs, and he is not raising taxes at all! But he is warning that next year will be much tougher as he begins to tackle the "Alice in Wonderland" pensions and benefits. Two examples he gave. 1) "One state retiree, 49 years old, paid, over the course of his entire career a total of $124,000 toward his retirement pension and health benefits. What will we pay him? $3.3 million in pension payments over his life and nearly $500,000 for health care benefits - a total of $3.8 million on a $120,000 investment. Is that fair?" 2) "A retired teacher paid $62,000 toward her pension and nothing, yes nothing, for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career. What will we pay her? $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it fair for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?" I wish him well because every state in the union is faced with the same bottomless rabbit hole of entitlements.

No Chris Christie in the White House though. No, the White House instead proposes to slap a new, first time ever, 2.9% Medicare tax on interest, dividends, annuities, royalties, and rents! This investment tax on top of the new higher 20% capital gains tax that takes effect when the Bush tax cuts expire next year, for a total investment tax rate of 22.9%, up from the current 15%, a whopping 52% increase in taxes for investors!! In the upside down world that Alice visits I'm sure that some actually believe that this little 52% increase will have no effect on peoples willingness to invest capital. Remember that capital, both monetary and intellectual, will flow to where it is treated the best. 

Food for thought on an area where we might want to think about cutting back...military spending.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm all for a strong military but does anyone really believe we are getting our moneys worth?

As a percentage of GDP the U.S. spends twice as much as any other major country. And on a dollar basis ten times as much as China.

Just something to think about.

I hope a few of our elected officials see "Alice" this weekend and realize that we can't live in a fantasy world any longer. 

Alice: If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary-wise; what it is it wouldn't be, and what it wouldn't be, it would. You see? 

Doorknob: Read the directions and directly you will be directed in the right direction. 

Be careful out there,

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

  

What Condition My Condition Was In

Someone painted "April Fool" in big black letters on a "Dead End" sign
I had my foot on the gas as I left the road and blew out my mind
Eight miles outta Memphis and I got no spare
Eight miles straight up downtown somewhere
I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in

I said I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in
Yeah yeah oh-yeah

"Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition Was In)" by Kenny Rogers and The First Edition

Watch it on YouTube:

Kenny Rogers & The First Edition - Just Dropped In

Risk Diversification versus Asset Diversification:

After 2008 and early 2009's sickening plunge, when all assets seemed to plummet in synch, many investors felt betrayed by their advisors or the numerous talking heads that espoused the benefits of "Asset Diversification" in constructing an investment portfolio. They were told that asset diversification would protect them when markets fell, and when that didn't work the same talking heads told them that all assets are correlated during a panic. Who can blame them for being so confused "I tripped on a cloud and fell-a eight miles high, I tore my mind on a jagged sky". The problem wasn't diversification, the problem was they (or their advisors) confused "asset diversification" for "risk diversification". Most investors thought they were diversified because they owned ; large-cap stocks, mid-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, growth, value, core, international stocks, emerging market stocks, U.S. Government bonds, corporate bonds (investment grade and junk), international bonds, etc, etc. What many were doing was buying what Wall Street was selling...investment products...not diversifying. 

While what I do is called "global tactical asset allocation", it is more about "Diversifying Risk" instead of "Diversifying Assets". Investors need to build diversified portfolios that truly diversify risk, not just assets. In the good old days we thought of asset allocation revolving around three main asset classes: stocks, for long-term growth; bonds, for income and safety; and cash, for liquidity. Many advisors would then allocate among these assets based on an investment time horizon; the longer the time horizon the larger the equity component of the portfolio,  while the shorter the time horizon the larger the bond portfolio. What we really need to focus on is risk not product.

All investors are faced with a multitude of risks, and while risks can be scary, they can also be managed through proper active diversification.

What are some of the risks we should be cognizant of? And how do we invest for proper risk diversification?

Risks:

Inflation, deflation, currency devaluation, sovereign defaults, corporate defaults.

Diversifying Assets:

Inflation hedges- inflation linked bonds (TIPS), commodities, real estate, and equities, especially those linked to commodities.

Deflation hedges- U.S. Treasury bonds, which served as a safe haven in this most recent crisis even though this crisis was "made in the USA". But the next crisis may not be so kind to U.S. debt so we should also own some international sovereign debt.

Currency devaluation hedges- Gold, international currencies, and non-U.S. equities and debt.

Sovereign default hedges- Gold, and fiscally strong international markets.

Corporate default hedges- Very diverse global equity and fixed income portfolios that mitigate company specific risk.

While all these risks are with us on a daily basis, their probability of occurring in the near future is constantly changing, thats why active tactical asset allocation is paramount. My job as portfolio manager (or more appropriately risk manager) is to constantly ask, "what condition my condition is in"?

Investment Consideration:

Recently, as more of our equity, commodity, and fixed income holdings moved from bullish to neutral, cash as a percent of our holdings has been growing, and so has my discomfort. Generally cash (money market equivalents) is a pretty safe place to hang out, and that is still most likely the case, but I worry that maybe, just maybe, the currency (U.S. dollar) that our cash equivalents are denominated in may not be the safest. Is there a way to safely diversify the currency risk of our cash holdings? I think so.

The Chinese Yuan. China has just displaced Germany as the world's largest exporter with $1.2 trillion of goods shipped in 2009. The U.S. has not held the top spot since 2003. In 1980 China began a series of large currency devaluations that took the Yuan from 1.50 to the dollar to its current 0.15 cents, a devaluation of 90%. The goal was to make exports more competitive and they've succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. For over a decade China has been under pressure from global trade partners (especially the U.S.) to allow its currency to appreciate so foreign goods would be more attractive to the booming Chinese middle-class. China did allow its currency to appreciate 21% from July 2005 - July 2008, but has held it nearly steady at about 6.83 Yuan per dollar since then to help sustain their exports. On a purchasing power parity basis the Chinese Yuan is about 45% undervalued! The pressure is on. An artificially low exchange rate leads to an exploding inflation rate and potential trade sanctions. Congress and President Obama have been turning up the heat, and the Treasury Department may label China a "currency manipulator", which would allow Congress to impose punitive trade sanctions. On the other hand, China hates to be told how to do anything. The Chinese Central Bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, says he won't entertain a revaluation for the foreseeable future. The Americans say they want it last year. To me, that means sometime in the next year. When the Chinese allow their currency to appreciate, I don't expect it to be anywhere near 45%, but a gradual appreciation of maybe 5% a year would be acceptable. 

Back to our problem, too much cash denominated in U.S. dollars.

A prudent way to diversify U.S. dollar risk would be to buy the Chinese Yuan. Since the Yuan is currently pegged to the dollar your downside risk is the same as holding the dollar, but if the Chinese again allow their currency to appreciate you will participate in that revaluation. 

This is something easily accomplished for our clients through the use of...

Be careful out there,

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

  

Low Spark

The percentage you're paying is too high priced
while you're living beyond all your means.
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
from the profit he's made on your dreams.
But today you just swear that the man was shot dead
by a gun that didn't make any noise.
But it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
was the low spark of high-heeled boys.

"Low Spark of High Heeled Boys" by Traffic

Watch it on YouTube:

The Low Spark Of High Heeled Boys- Traffic- Live -1972

Don't you just love the way the universe comes together in the most unexpected of ways. My oldest daughter Lauren, a seventh grader, has been studying Greek history for the last several weeks and her school has gone all out to make it an enjoyable history lesson. In Literature they read "Percy Jackson and the Lightening Thief", in math they studied geometry (founded by the Greek Thales (624-547BC)), and in Social Studies they studied ancient Greek culture. Each classroom was decorated after a particular Greek God, and it all culminated today in a Greek festival, complete with Greek foods (provided by parents) and mandatory toga attire. Add the Olympics into the mix, and the non-stop business news about Greek's financial problems, and it seems like every time I turn around I'm running into Greece. 

It's ironic, that what may emerge as the trigger for the West's newest financial crisis, has begun in Greece, the birthplace of western civilization. And it is also a shame that the birthplace of democracy is now being forced by outside creditors and guarantors to make the hard decisions that they should have been making through their own legislative process for the last 30 years. After seeing the news the other night, Lauren asked me about the riots in the streets of Greece, something to the effect of, "like, whats going on in Greece"? I explained to her that Greece, like so many countries, has spent decades promising their citizens more benefits than they could deliver. The country was living beyond all its means. Eventually when you borrow to live beyond your means you're creditor (the person who loaned you the money) will want to be repaid, that is what's happening in Greece. Lauren asks again, "yeah, but like why are they rioting?" Well its simple, they were told that their country can no longer afford to keep its promises; that they'll have to work to 63 before retiring, public sector wages will be frozen, and taxes will be increased. Lauren again making me proud, "Duh, like where did they think the money was going to come from?" That's my girl! 

The situation in Greece will be fun to watch and very instructive. Already we have the Germans asking why they have to work till 67 so the Greeks can retire at 63. And the Greeks (playing the six decade old Nazi card) saying that the Germans killed 300,000 Greeks, took all the gold from the Bank of Greece, and never paid it back. While this is great theater, please don't forget that even though the balance sheet of Greece is similar to that of the UK and the US there are some very big differences. Greece can not print Euro's, they can not devalue their currency to spur growth, we can. I'm not saying that printing dollars and devaluing currency is a good thing, but it is a tool that can be used to mitigate the pain of fiscal constraints. Greece is much more comparable to a state, say California. California is in a world of hurt...living beyond all their means...and is seeking help from the Federal Government (i.e. all the other taxpayers) to bail them out. Will taxpayers, from other states (i.e. you and I), riot in the streets when California takes their hard-earned dollars to pay for their in-state students nearly free college education, or their public sector retirees at the ripe old age of 50? That's what these tea-party protests are all about. People are tired of living within their means, and then being forced to pay for others who haven't. 

The Greeks have found out that "the percentage they're paying is too high priced, while they're living beyond all their means." Jim Capaldi, of the ban Traffic, said that "low spark" to him meant "high-spirited rebel" and that "high heeled boys" were the guys in Europe back in 1971 walking around in cowboy boots. Will todays bond vigilantes be the "high-spirited rebels" who lay them to rest?

Investment Considerations

Clearly we'll be watching the global markets to see how this contagion spreads. So far its been interesting that the US dollar has strengthened while gold has weakened, as currency players have shorted the Euro and gone long the dollar. Eventually this may become an indictment on all fiat currencies and then gold will rally again...we'll see.

Next week I'll comment on some interesting ways we might be able to manage our U.S. dollar risk.

Until then, be careful out there.

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

Turning Japanese

No sex, no drugs, no wine, no women
No fun, no sin, no you, no wonder it's dark
Everyone around me is a total stranger
Everyone avoids me like a cyclone ranger
That's why I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so 

"Turning Japanese" by The Vapors

View it on YouTube:

The Vapors Turning Japanese totp2

Could the U.S. be "turning Japanese"? Not to long ago the Fed's biggest fear was that we would fall into a Japanese style deflation. A deflation, that despite bridges to nowhere and Yen dropped from helicopters, has gone on now for twenty years. Fully aware of this risk, our own very astute Fed has embarked on the exact same Keynesian track of quantitative easing to try and reignite inflation. Now most pundits believe that the Fed will not only be successful in reigniting inflation, but they will be way too successful, resulting in massive dollar devaluation and hyperinflation. But could they be wrong, could our future be a massive debt deflation, and an economy that just doesn't grow?

So which should we fear, inflation or deflation?

The answer is really simple, we should fear both. I will go to my grave arguing that none of us know for certain what the ultimate outcome of this epic war will be. We will most likely have inflation winning several battles and deflation winning several other, but it will most likely be years before we know the ultimate victor. It clearly appears that most of the investing public is on the inflation band wagon and making the same inflationary bets; selling the dollar and buying gold, commodities, emerging markets, and various equities. This has been a great trade for the last twelve months, but it appears to be waning of late. We have recently seen a decisive breakdown in the inflationary trade; with gold, commodities, and emerging markets all trading lower. The dollar has rallied as the strongest alternative in a weak global currency market. I always worry when the majority of investors are leaning hard the same way, because Mr. Market will do whatever possible to fool the most people most of the time. 

I've learned that the most successful tact to take is listening to the market, and right now it is saying, "deflation is still a possible outcome". "I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so".

Muni Default Update:

This weekend, while most of us were busy digging out again, our elected officials in Harrisburg passed a budget for 2010. The surprising part of the budget is that it excludes making debt payments! In essence, the city anticipates defaulting. When asked if this means the city will shortly file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, city controller Miller says, "its a possibility". You think? The catalyst will most likely be a $2 million missed interest payment on an incinerator due March 1st. Again, if you have muni bonds issued by the city of Harrisburg, please contact your investment advisor.

Investment Considerations: 

In sympathy with the markets move away from inflationary fears, several of our indicators have turned negative recently, causing us to move from bullish weights to neutral weights in the following assets: International Equities, Gold miners, Commodities, and International Bonds. In the meantime U.S. fixed income moved from neutral (where it resided for only a month) back to a fully invested bullish mode. We currently have a 17% target weight for cash.

Be careful out there,

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

Walk On By

And the walking man walks
Doesn't know nothing at all
Any other man stops and talks
But the walking man walks on by
Walk on by

"Walking Man" by James Taylor

Oops, in my last post I forgot to add the latest on the debt issues closer to home, namely Harrisburg, PA.

Harrisburg is considering Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection along with tax increases and asset sales as options to address $68 million in debt service payments due this year.

Every option, including tax and fee increases, bankruptcy and a state takeover through Pennsylvania's Act 47 municipal oversight program will be considered, said Susan Brown-Wilson, chairwoman of the Budget and Finance committee. 

If you have any municipal bonds issued by Harrisburg please contact your advisor to review your exit options while you still can, and just "walk on by". 

On a much happier note, the Alberto Giacometti 1960 statue "L'Homme Qui Marche I" ("The Walking Man I"), sold at a Sotheby's auction for a record $104.3 million.

Not only does this show that with interest rates near zero investors are willing to pay top dollar for art, it is a huge win for the Carnegie Museum here in Pittsburgh. You see Giacometti made six numbered bronzes and four artist proofs, and the Carnegie has bronze number 1. Yes that's right, you can walk into the Carnegie and see the worlds most expensive piece of art. The museum purchased the piece in 1961 for a low five figure sum and has had it on display ever since. What was their return on that investment? Let's assume they paid $25,000 in 1961. If it is now worth $104.3 million that is a compound annual return of 18.5% for the last 49 years!! The only downside is that the museums insurance costs just went way up.

Congrats Carnegie. 

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

You Never Give Me Your Money

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper
And in the middle of negotiations
You break down

"You Never Give Me Your Money" by The Beatles

Listen to the YouTube video:

You Never Give Me Your Money(long 6 min version)-The Beatles

Markets were able to shrug off last Novembers debt troubles in Dubai, when their rich uncle Abu Dhabi came to their rescue. And for the last several months they seemed willing to mostly ignore the debt problems of Greece, but this week that tune has changed. We have seen a sharp pullback in all risk assets as investors fled all components of the "reflation" trade; stocks, commodities, gold, oil, and higher risk debt. In fact this was one of the most synchronized declines since Sept. '08.

The current crisis in Greece is seen as just the tip of the PIIGS tail. For those of you not familiar with the PIIGS, they are the opposite of the BRIC's. The BRIC's are Brazil, Russia, India, and China, while the PIIGS are Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. The term was coined to easily name the five worst economies in Europe. The following is each countries Deficit-to-GDP ratio:

Portugal 9.3%

Italy 5.4%

Ireland 11.2%

Greece 12.7%

Spain 11.5%

Now it can be argued that not all of these countries are a basket case, that they will be able to grow, tax, and cut their way out of trouble. That may be true, but it won't be easy. The bond vigilantes are forcing the governments of these countries to make some tough choices. In the case of Greece they have driven Greece's interest rates to record highs versus the German Bund, and in response Greece has offered a plan to cut it's deficit to only 3% by 2012. Easier said then done. Greece's public sector work force, like that of most of Europe, is heavily unionized. In fact, in the first of a planned series of strikes, the Greek tax collectors didn't show up for work.

Now I think it is wrong to single out the PIIGS, after all the other white meat has a lot going for it (umm Bacon), and they actually have a lot of company in the high Debt-to-GDP camp.

United Kingdom 14%

United States 10.6%

The choice that all of these countries have is rather unpalatable: cut proactively and take the risk of killing your fragile economic recovery and increasing social unrest; or have the cuts forced upon you by a hostile bond market in the midst of a financial crisis.

In summary, most sovereign nations aggressively borrowed several trillion dollars to bail out their private sector banks. The debt did not go away, it was simply transferred from the private sector to the public sector, and the holders of that public sector debt  are getting a bit worried about everyones ability to repay. In other words, "You never give me your money, you only give me your funny paper". 

Investment Considerations

Since late last summer nearly all the asset categories we follow have been near their maximum bullish levels (i.e. fully invested), but a few weeks ago we started to move to neutral positions in some fixed income and international areas, and subsequently increasing our cash holdings. This weeks action has continued to move many other assets closer to neutral, or outright negative, and if the trend continues over the next several days we would expect to see an increase in cash levels.

As always, be careful out there,

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

Working for a Living

Somedays won't end ever and somedays pass on by,
I'll be working here forever, at least until I die.
Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't
I'm supposed to get a raise week, you know damn well I won't.

Workin' for a livin' (workin')
Workin' for a livin' (workin')
Workin' for a livin', livin' and workin'
I'm taking what they giving 'cause I'm working for a livin'. 

"Workin for a Living" by Huey Lewis and the News

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (government employees) recently released the following data comparing Federal Civilian jobs to Private Industry jobs, and the data is jaw-dropping. The average Federal employee makes about twice what the average private sector employee makes. What Washington doesn't get is the anger out in the hinter-land is not anti-democrat, anti-republican, or even anti-banker, it is anti-government! As a security analyst one of the metrics we would often look at is revenue per employee and profit per employee, as an indicator of how efficient/profitable a firm was compared to their peers. For example, both Apple and Google generate over $1,000,000 per employee in revenues, but Google generates a bit over $200,000 per employee in profits, while Apple generates a bit over $150,000 per employee. Both excellent, but Google gets the nod based solely on this metric. Now how about those federal employees, what is their revenue per employee or their profit per employee? That's right, it's negative...they generate zero revenues and negative profits!

Last week, in the President's State of the Union address, President Obama stated that Washington must "make investments", "create jobs", increase "production", and "efficiency". Wow, that's quite a task, considering who is in Washington. You see, the President has only one member of his cabinet that has ever had a job in the private sector (you know, one of those jobs that generate revenues) and that is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who was once a lawyer. 

Last weekend, I was talking to a realtor up at Seven Springs Resort (a ski resort about an hour from Pittsburgh and 4 hours from D.C.) about the local condo market, and he said things were picking up. "That's great", I said. And he said, "Yeah we're getting a lot of interest out of the Washington area, no recession there."

Maybe it's time we quit "taking what they giving".

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Investment Considerations

I was recently talking with a good friend and client of mine, about our investment fears, and she said that her biggest fear is her muni-bond portfolio. With runaway municipal deficits she worries about the safety of what was originally purchased as a safe haven. I couldn't agree more with her, and since I still have a nice chunk of my families assets in PA. muni's, it is one area that gets constant monitoring. Fortunately Pennsylvania is not yet as bad as New York, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Oregon, Vermont, Michigan, Illinois, and of course California. California should be a good litmus test of what will happen when a state approaches bankruptcy. Recently, for political reasons, Gov. Schwarzenegger used the word Armageddon in describing his states precarious financial position. But, do we really need to worry about our muni's? Sure, we should worry about all of our investments, but we need to keep it in perspective. There has never been a state filling for bankruptcy. Never. Could it happen? Sure, anything can happen. New York City came close in 1975, and Cleveland came close in 1978. Orange County actually did file in 1994. There is no federal protection for a state filing for bankruptcy, and states can't print money like the federal government, so it will be interesting to see what happens in California. In Orange County, muni investors were eventually made whole, even though the citizens of the county had to pay significantly higher interest rates on future muni debt. 

Yes, we should be concerned about investing in states where bankruptcy is a possibility, we may not lose all of our investment in a bankruptcy, but we could take a serious hit to principal or interest...Muni's are not risk-free.

Even so-called risk-free U.S. Treasuries are not risk-free!

We need to diversify globally and across all asset types; equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities, currencies, and gold. Only active global asset allocation can hopefully protect from governments run amok. 

Keep workin' and be careful out there,

Chris Wiles

www.rockhavencapital.com

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.