Friday, February 17, 2012

Rumour Has It

All these words whispered in my ear
Tell a story that I cannot bear to hear
Just 'cause I said it, it don't mean that I meant it
People say crazy things


Lately I've struggled with writing this note. I'm at one of those points where there is just so much to comment on, that I am having trouble deciding where to start. I'm also grappling with the fact that so much of what is being "whispered in my ear, tell a story that I cannot bear to hear."  

First, I've been wrestling with how to describe my feelings concerning what I see as the "real" divide in America. I don't think it is a democrat/republican or conservative/liberal split. And I don't even believe that it is a 99% vs 1% battle. No, to me the country has become more and more divided into those that have "skin-in-the-game" and those that don't, the "elites". This is the divide in the Western world today, not rich versus poor. The "elites" are generally made up of politicians, some Wall Street executives, many in the mainstream media, the powerful heads of labor unions, and the CEO's of many large state-connected and protected multi-national corporations. They have created a world in which they can reap most of the upside and suffer none of the downside, they have no skin-in-the-game. 

The other 99% of us with "skin-in-the-game" are the unconnected wealthy, the middle class, and the poor. The elites would like us to think its class warfare, rich versus middle class and poor, but it's not. We don't begrudge those that have taken risks with their own money, and either failed or become wealthy. We begrudge those who take risk with other peoples money, and never personally fail. The Occupy Wall Streeters were on the right track, but they failed to differentiate between true capitalism and crony-capitalism or fascism. Capitalism, as it used to be practiced, lifted millions out of poverty. Today's bastardized crony capitalism, robs from the successful risk takers, and keeps millions from pursuing their dreams. The battle is not against wealth, it is against power and the abuse of power. Certainly wealth can and does, buy power, but wealth, in and of itself, is not evil. 

Speaking of those with skin-in-the-game, is there any group with more skin-in-the-game than our military. They risk it all for little or no upside. They represent the citizens, and fight for an ideal of personal freedom and responsibility. What happens when they realize that they are fighting to protect the elites, and not the constitution. Why do you think Ron Paul has more military support than all the other candidates combined? 

This is not just a US issue, look at what's happening in Greece. Sure the Greek economy is a hopeless basket case, but when you have the Federation of Greek Police threaten to issue arrest warrants to EU/IMF officials accused of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty," there is something deeper going on here. People around the world are waking up to the fact that the system has been massively corrupted. Capitalism is not the problem, crony-capitalism is.

It's Halftime America 

Clint Eastwood has drawn a lot of criticism for his Super Bowl halftime commercial for Chrysler (oops, Fiat). The main objection to the ad is that Clint (an avowed Libertarian) touts the success of a company that deserved to fail, but was instead bailed out with other peoples money (yours), as the "new" American way. It is total propaganda from our current ruling elite. Not sure what Clint's motivation was, but it was sad. 
Here is a much better version of the commercial brought to us by Omid Melikan. Please take four minutes to watch them both, which do you prefer?



Here's where we stand today in our Global Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolios:

Surprisingly, while many big picture issues are quite troubling, stocks are nearing four year highs ( the media tries to make this sound great, but all it really means is that for the last four years you've made nothing). In spite of Washington's interference, corporate America is showing signs of growth. I'm taking this growth with a grain of salt (actually I've always liked a little salt on my apple). Apple has grown so large so fast, that it is distorting the growth figures being reported in the S&P 500. In the fourth quarter the S&P 500 is showing earnings growth of 6.6%, but excluding Apple's 116% earnings growth, the earnings growth for the other 499 companies drops to 2.8%!

We will continue to diversify and take what the markets are giving us: 

US Equities -- 20% Bullish,
 we are now at our full US equity weight.
Int'l Equities -- 12% Neutral,
 we have now moved to neutral in our International equity weight. 
US REITs --  6% 
Bullish, we are now at our full US REIT target of 6%.
Int'l REITs -- 2% Neutral, international REITs have moved out of bearish territory
.
Gold --6% Neutral, Gold is neutral but the gold miners have been acting poorly.
Commodities -- 6% Neutral, the appearance of economic stability has caused commodities to begin rising
.
US Fixed Income -- 29% Bullish, the stabilization in the economy is slowing the flight to safety, and US fixed income is showing signs of slipping into neutral territory.
Int'l Fixed Income -- 3% Neutral, We continue to have zero exposure to European & Japanese bonds, but we are at neutral exposure to Emerging Market bonds.
Cash Equivalents & Currencies -- 18%, cash levels fall and are divided between the US at 10%, 5% in China, and 3% Australia.

Is Bernanke Part Of Italian Mafia?

Strange news story coming out of Switzerland today ( Italy Police Seize $6 Trillion of Fake U.S. Treasury Bonds in ... ) . It appears that the Italian anti-mafia police have seized $6 trillion (yes trillion with a T), of counterfeit  US Treasury bonds from Swiss safety deposit boxes. The strange thing is that they were dated 1934 and had a nominal value of $1 billion apiece. Now $1 billion in 1934 was bigger than our GDP, and the US has never issued a $1 billion note. Why would you go through the effort of making sophisticated, high quality, counterfeit treasury bonds that are clearly counterfeit? And they were going to use these clearly fake, but painstakingly realistic bonds to buy plutonium from Nigerians? Only one 15 second mention of this the entire day on CNBC. The cases the bonds were in appear to be genuine or very good counterfeits. Very weird!

The problem with fiat money is that it's only as good as the paper it's printed on. Head scratcher.

Here is what the bonds and the boxes look like:



  
NOTA Way Ahead In Polls:

In the race for the Presidency of The United States NOTA (None 0f the Above) is still way ahead in the polls. I'm starting a Super Pac for NOTA. I'm sure the kid would get the recognition he deserves if he was only able to get his message out. If you would like to contribute give me a call.

Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,

Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


For prior Rockhaven Views visit:

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.


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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Something For Nothing

You can't get something for nothing
You can't have freedom for free
You won't get wise
With the sleep still in your eyes
No matter what your dreams might be


On this first day of February 2012 (2/1/12), I thought I'd offer up a little tribute to Rush and their 2112 album. 

As January Goes, So Goes the Year -

January was a pretty special month for the "Risk-on" crowd. The S&P 500 was up 4.61%, this was the best January since 1997, 15 years ago. Developed market international stocks were up 5.27%, and Emerging Market stocks were up 10.78%. The yellow metal, Gold, was up a glittering 11.40%. Most "Risk-off" assets, like US Treasuries were flat, long-term US treasury bonds were up 0.57%. All in all a great way to start the New Year.

There's an old Wall Street adage, "As January goes, so goes the year". Many talking heads have been rolling this out over the last week, and on its face the numbers look impressive. In the 82 years since 1926, this metric worked 70% of the time. But in those 82 years the market was actually up 76% of the time. When January is a down year, however, the probability that the rest of the year is down is just 35%. In fact a statistician will tell you that only 1% of the variation in yearly performance is explained by January's performance.

Don't get me wrong, I love an up market, it makes me look smart. Just don't believe that the rest of the year is clear sailing. 

ZIRP May Not Be Good For Stocks - 

Another common refrain, is that the Fed's zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), will force investors into higher risk assets, especially dividend paying stocks. While this makes intuitive sense, in the real world it doesn't always work that way. There was a period in the late 1940's and early 1950's when the Fed forced rates to very low levels to try and stimulate the economy. There are some interesting similarities between that time period and today. The Fed was saddled with a very high debt to GDP, which was caused by the cumulative effects of WWI and WWII. Even with an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy and negative real rates P/E multiples on the S&P 500 fell below 7x. Investors didn't care, they were risk averse. The world was an uncertain place, another war was on the horizon (Korea), and the country was cautious.

Today we have a similar scenario. We are faced with a monstrous mountain of debt (built up by decades of overconsumption), and we are limping out of one financial crisis facing the prospect of more (Europe & Here). The Fed is doing its best to stimulate demand (encourage inflation), but Americans just aren't buying it. As mentioned above, we had the best January in 15 years, but January's volume on the NYSE was down 26% year-over-year, and down a whopping 59% from January of 2008. A Wall Street trader was quoted as saying, "Our desk is dead!" 

The Fed is pushing, and pushing hard, to get investors to take on more risk, but maybe investors just aren't that stupid. With total ineptitude in Washington (both parties), a mountain of debt that neither party is addressing, a tenuous global situation (both economic & political), is it any wonder that investors are sitting on their hands channeling Mark Twain ... "It's not the return on my principal, it's the return of my principal." 

If interest rates are pegged at zero for six years, its inevitable that the volatility of inflationary expectations will rise (witness gold). If the volatility of inflationary expectations rise P/E multiples decline. Stocks can head higher, just don't believe that it is a given, just because interest rates are at zero.

Below is a graph that shows Price to Earnings multiples over time. By this metric, stocks aren't exactly cheap.



Average holding period for a stock increased 10% last year -

Another interesting factoid. The average holding period for a stock increased by 10% in 2011, from 20 seconds to 22 seconds. Computer generated high frequency trades (HFT) accounted for 70% of all volume!

Life - and Death Proposition -

Please enjoy Bill Gross of PIMCO's recent piece, some excellent food for thought.

Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,

Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


For prior Rockhaven Views visit:

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.


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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Battle Lines Being Drawn

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong


The battle lines are being drawn, and the war is being fought on multiple fronts. You may not have realized that we are at war, but we are. I'm not talking about Iraq or Afghanistan, I'm talking about the civil war right here in the United States of America. Part of it is "Class Warfare," part is "Financial Repression," part of it is "Crony Capitalism," and part of it is a growing "Police State." Overall it is a battle for the future of America.

It's funny that most people think that Stephen Stills wrote, "For What It's Worth" in 1966 as an anti war anthem, but the truth is that he wrote it to protest the heavy handed police state that was closing down the night clubs they hung out in on Sunset Strip in LA. It's a song written to open peoples eyes to threats to our freedoms right here in our own back yard. "Stop, children, what's that sound? Everybody look what's going down."

Professionally I often see myself as an "Investment Mercenary," nobody cares what you think, whether you're right or wrong, they just want to know if you made them money. Generally I'm OK with that, I've learned long ago that making money is what I'm paid for, being right is secondary. Personally though I love "Freedom," and "Free Markets". Today I'm going to share a few of my thoughts on the various attacks I see taking place on our freedoms and their investment implications.

Class Warfare - The other nights State of the Union address made it clear to all that President Obama's reelection campaign will be based on pitting one class of Americans against another. Not about uniting, but dividing. In 2008 when then Senator Obama was asked why he would support raising capital gains taxes even though revenues from the tax increased when the rate had fallen in prior years, he replied, "I would look at raising the capital gains tax for the purposes of fairness." Tuesday night President Obama used the word "fair" to describe his goal of wealth redistribution seven times (That's seven shot's for those of you playing along at home). He even had the nerve to put Warren Buffett's poor secretary next to the first lady. As an aside, if Warren's secretary is paying 35% on her AGI then she is making in excess of $200,000, not your typical poor secretary. The Congressional Budget Office notes that the effective income tax rate of the richest 1% is about 29.5% when you include all federal taxes, including distributions of corporate taxes. Many wealthy earn money which they are taxed on, they then invest that money in corporations. Those corporations pay taxes on their earnings before they distribute dividends. Those dividends are then taxed again at the individual rate of 15%. If the income is taxed at the corporate rate of 35% and again at the individual rate for dividends or long-term capital gains at 15%, the combined effective tax rate is 44.75%. The effective tax rate for the bottom 50% of taxpayers is 2.5%. 

Investment Implications - If a new super duper alternative minimum tax of 30% is applied to those making over $1,000,000, will their investment habits change? Will they buy fewer municipal bonds if their municipal income is no longer tax free? What interest rates will municipalities have to pay to entice investors? Won't that cause all of our local taxes to increase? Will they take the risk of starting new companies knowing that their returns will be significantly lower? Will wealth be created in the United States at the same rate that it was in prior decades? Will growth slow or accelerate?
Class warfare leads to less risk taking and slower economic growth. As Margaret Thatcher once said, "Socialism works until we run out of other peoples money". 

Financial Repression - Wednesday Fed Chairman Bernanke gave his State of the Economy address and made it very clear to all that financial repression will continue. The Fed has been implementing their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) for years now, and again stated that it will continue to do so till late 2014 at the earliest. When asked during the news conference about the pain he was causing the millions of prudent savers Bernanke said, "I guess the response I would make is that savers in our economy are dependent on a healthy economy in order to get adequate returns. Once low interest rates enable the economy to recover, that in turn will lead ultimately to higher returns across all assets for savers and investors." He could of just said, "The beatings will continue until morale improves." Holding interest rates below inflation to ease debt levels and limiting capital mobility is known as "financial repression", and it can last for years, even decades. 
The Fed wants inflation, they want the value of the dollar to fall in order to make our massive debts smaller in real terms. The Fed has 22,000 employees and operates outside the congressional appropriations process. Even the CIA and the Navy Seals don't enjoy the Fed's unlimited spending power. They have the power to manipulate interest rates and manipulate the dollar, in fact they are the worlds biggest currency manipulators.
In the SOTUA President Obama also proposed that he would use tax policy to penalize individuals and corporations who move jobs, assets, or profits offshore. 

Investment Implications - After the Fed's pronouncement gold immediately rose above $1,700 an ounce. Yields on Treasury bonds fell (prices rose), and stocks rallied momentarily. Stocks are in a quandary. On the one hand lower yields on bonds make stocks (especially dividend payers) more attractive, but on the other hand the Fed's pronouncement that economic growth will be subpar for years means earnings growth will be subpar too. Capital will always flow to where it is treated best. If the US practices "financial repression" and restricts the flows of capital, will capital flow willingly into the US?

Crony Capitalism - Crony capitalism is the system of politically motivated handouts from the government disguised as bailouts or "investments." Unfortunately the United States is dominated by two parties that are very comfortable implementing their form of crony capitalism. Whether it's the long-running funding of the military industrial machine, the "investment" in clean fuels like ethanol or solar, or the bailouts of banks and auto companies, the United States is a long way from Capitalism. Pure capitalism is when one or more investors provide their own capital to a venture, sometimes risky, sometimes safe. The key is they are investing their money. Spending someone else's money is easy, painless, and risk free...for both the "lender" and the recipient. Washington has become very adept at "investing" OPM, just look at Solara Solar. 

Investment Implications - The government has taken an increasingly active role in picking corporate winners or losers, whether its alternative energy versus fossil fuels, or companies that source their labor exclusively in the US versus those that are global. The investment field is uneven, unfair, and manipulated. As Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, said today in Davos, "We should describe it as bankruptcy for big dumb companies, including banks, we have to get rid of too big to fail." He went on to say, "What the American public wants to know is that it is not going to cost me money." Unfortunately the American public and investors aren't playing in a capitalistic economy where those that are successful are rewarded and those that fail go out of business. Never before have we witnessed such a massive misallocation of capital. Stocks trade at lower P/E multiples (Price to Earnings) in countries where crony capitalism is rampant. 

Police State - This week we saw US Senator Rand Paul, son of Presidential candidate Ron Paul, detained by our crack TSA for his refusal to be groped. We also saw President Obama allude to increased penalties on those companies that operate globally. Fortunately this week also saw the Supreme Court shoot down the demand for the police's use of GPS tracking devices affixed to cars without a warrant. These are just two examples of what has been a marked increase in the power of the government to intrude into the private lives of citizens. Much of this has been done under the guise of anti-terrorism, but it is a very slippery slope that we are traveling down. It has become increasingly easy for the government to detain individuals, freeze, and confiscate their funds. 

Investment Implications - Again, capital flows to where it is treated favorably. A government that restricts the flow of funds into and out of its borders, simply because it can, will not attract capital versus a state with open borders. Witness the billions in cash on US corporate balance sheets sitting in overseas banks because of the confiscatory taxes imposed on repatriated funds (Apple alone has $64 billion of it's $98 billion parked overseas). A heavy handed police state restricts growth.

Now I know it may not sound like it, but I'm an optimist. I still believe that we live in the greatest country on earth, but that we need some serious work in order to stay that way. I just finished Steve Jobs biography written by Walter Isaacson, and it was a great read. If it doesn't give you faith in our abilities to alter our future than nothing will. Those who worked with Jobs said he often operated in a "reality distortion field," where he would simply force his own reality to win out. I believe that "we the people" can effect massive change, but first we have to stand up and take notice. Washington has grown very powerful, and they are very good at pitting us against each other, but if we are vigilant and aware we can still prevail. Social media may be the best thing that's ever happened to this republic. 

It's time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down.

Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,

Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


For prior Rockhaven Views visit:

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.


 
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

State Of The Union - What Condition My Condition Is In


I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in.


Tonight is our annual update on the State of Our Union, otherwise known as "What condition my condition is in."  To be truthful, most of these annual updates have very little to do with our current state, and have much more to do with where our President would like us to be heading. With a sitting President running for reelection, we can expect to hear about a few successes (very few), but mostly we will hear about how much better the future State will be if he's just given four more years. We'll probably hear something like, "We've made progress, the State of our Union is strong, but we still have work to do." 

Heading into his second term, President Obama has a 44% approval rating, which is higher than Jimmy Carters 37%, and just a bit below Reagan's 47%. Unemployment is falling from lofty levels, and in spite of government ineptitude the economy is improving ever so slightly. Intrade has the odds of an Obama victory this November at about 55%. 

As an investor, here are some of things I'll be listening for:

1) Class Warfare - This will be a big part of the presidents campaign. He is putting Warren Buffett's secretary next to Michele in order to emphasize the injustice in our tax code that has a lowly secretary paying more (as a percentage) in taxes than her billionaire boss. This is also a nice way to jab at Romney's 14% tax bill. Now most investors know that dividends and long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate of 15% versus 35% for short-term gains, and higher wages. What many fail to realize is that these dividend payments have already been taxed once at the corporate level, and are now being taxed a second time at the personal level. Also, many wealthy help subsidize their local schools, hospitals, and other state endeavors by purchasing tax-free bonds. This allows these organizations to borrow at below market rates. A strong case can be made for encouraging long-term capital investment through attractive tax rates.
Clearly our President believes that his voters would like a "fairer" tax where the wealthy are not encouraged to invest. It will be interesting to see how strong his rhetoric is when it comes to the tax treatment of dividends, capital gains, and municipal income.

2) The Housing Crisis - Housing has been a major drag on the economy for the last several years and is finally showing some signs of stabilization. Listen for any major promises on mortgage relief or foreclosure relief. Depending on the size of the promises this could lead to another down leg in bank profitability and share prices.

3) Energy Independence -  This should be interesting after recently shooting down the Keystone pipeline, and the failure of Solara Solar. Don't expect much if you're an energy bull.

4) Manufacturing - While US exports have been growing, they are still growing at a slower pace than US imports, hence a growing trade deficit. Last year the President promise to double our exports by 2014, they were up 11% last year. See if he sticks to his double by 2014 pledge. This should be mostly lip service, nothing major from an investing perspective.

5) Spending - Oops - Investing - The President is a pure Keynesian, he believes that increased "investing" (he won't use the word spending), by a knowledgeable leader, will get our economy growing at a more rapid pace. If $3 trillion got us 2% GDP growth than $6 trillion should get us 4%. Don't expect to hear anything substantive in the way of spending cuts. If we did hear anything about reducing spending that could be perceived as positive for the markets. 

Now I realize that some of you might struggle through the address. One popular method of making the SOTUA more enjoyable is to make it into a drinking game. Whenever you hear the President say one of the following, take a shot. 
- "Fairness" or "fair share"
- "Income inequality"
-"Investing in..."
- "Middle class"
- If you hear "debt" or "deficit" borrow a drink from your neighbor

Be careful, and enjoy.

Candidate Match Game:

If you're curious to see which candidate agrees with your views of the issues follow the attached link to the USA Today Candidate Match Game: (Remember to slide the scale next to issues to adjust to what you value most)


Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,

Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


For prior Rockhaven Views visit:

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Friday, January 13, 2012

Superstitious

Very superstitious, writing's on the wall
Very superstitious, ladders bout' to fall
Thirteen month old baby, broke the lookin' glass
Seven years of bad luck, the good things in your past

When you believe in things that you don't understand
Then you suffer
Superstition ain't the way


Happy Friday the 13th, nothing scary here, just keep moving along. So far in 2012 the S&P 500 is up 2.2%, Emerging Market stocks are up 3.6%, and Gold is up 4.6%. A few scary happenings over in Europe as investors struggle with the term "voluntary haircuts". EAFE stocks down 0.02%, and International Bonds down 3.22%.

We've made some big changes to our allocations this year, here's an update:

Here's where we stand today in our Global Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolios:

The big change from the end of the year were the increases in US stocks (VTI) now bullish, US real estate (VNQ) now bullish, the total elimination of Developed Market International Bonds, and a swap out of the Total US Bond market (BND) into the US Long-Term Treasury Bonds (BLV). Cash was lowered slightly to 29.5%. Exposure is similar to a barbell; US Equities & US REITS on one end and US Long-Term Bonds on the other, with very little in the middle, other than cash. 

US Equities -- 20% Bullish,
 we are now at our full US equity weight.
Int'l Equities -- 5% 
Bearish, we are now at our minimum International equity weight. 
US REITs --  6% 
Bullish, we are now at our full US REIT target of 6%.
Int'l REITs -- 2% Bearish
. The sell-off in Europe has knocked these stocks down.
Gold --6% Neutral, Gold is neutral but the gold miners have been acting poorly.
Commodities -- 5% Bearish, we are now at our minimum target of 5%
.
US Fixed Income -- 24.5% Bullish, a flight away from European debt continues to benefit US bonds, both Treasuries and High Yield.
Int'l Fixed Income -- 2% Bearish, We've totally eliminated our exposure to European & Japanese bonds. Still maintaining a minimum exposure to Emerging Market bonds.
Cash Equivalents & Currencies -- 29.5%, divided between the US at 30%, 5% in China, and 3% Australia.

President Hits Head On Ceiling:

In case you missed it we've hit our debt ceiling again, and President Obama is asking his colleagues in Congress to bless another increase. Here is an excellent video that puts the Debt Limit in perspective. Enjoy:



Another nice graphic of just how volatile 2011 was compared to the prior decade. Even though the S&P 500 ended the year basically unchanged, it was a hell of a ride:



When it comes to investing I think  Stevie Wonder said it best, "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer."

Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,

Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


For prior Rockhaven Views visit:

This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
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