"They tried to make me go to rehab
I said no, no, no.
Yes I been black, but when I come back
You won't know, know, know."
"Rehab" by Amy Winehouse
Black Swan Author Emerges from Self Imposed Exile
Nassim Taleb has an amazingly large ego, but he is also brilliant. Late last year he put himself into a self-imposed exile over his disgust of the reappointment of Ben Bernanke. Here is his exit letter:
"What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who committed malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.
No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic tranquility of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan."
Fortunately for us, people with huge egos can't remain exiled for long, (they've got books to sell), so Nassim is back!
Check out his two part interview on CNBC Europe:
Nassim believes, as do I, that we all need to go to debt rehab. We're starting with the Greeks, and several other European countries, but we're not quite there yet in the US. Now no one wants to go to rehab, it's painful, unpleasant, and boring, but necessary if you are to survive. I think we're still years away from any self-imposed rehab here in the States, I just don't see the intestinal fortitude needed in Washington, but eventually Mr. Bond Market will intervene. "He's tried to make me go to rehab, I won't go, go, go."
Well, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Tell me, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
'Cause I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Tell me, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
'Cause I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
"Who Are You" by The Who
Hundreds of people get my weekly emails, and many forward them on to friends and associates. While this is great, and I really appreciate the fact that some of you find my work interesting enough to forward. I've found that some people don't know who I am, or why I write. "Who are you?"
I got the question again this week, "What exactly do you do, are you like a financial planner or a broker?"
I know many people find our industry to be very confusing, not only from an investment perspective, but also from an advice perspective.
I've been a professional money manager for over 25 years, and I've seen my share of the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of our business. My purpose now is to manage my families money, along with the assets of my clients/partners; while helping enlighten as many interested investors as I can.
So, for those of you interested in what I do all day, here is a quick summary.
My Job: What I Do. Why I Do What I Do. How I Do What I Do.
* My job (really my purpose) is to manage my families money along with the assets of my clients/partners. Every client portfolio is nearly identical to mine...if its good enough for me...
* My goal is to preserve and increase the purchasing power of my (and my partners) investment capital.
* I write because I've always found it helps me clarify my thoughts. I share it with my clients and others because I believe in transparency and education.
* Rockhaven is an Investment Management firm, not an Asset Gathering firm.
* I am a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst). Asset Manager Code of Professional Conduct
* I am paid an annual percentage fee of assets under management. I do not receive commissions nor do I receive any other forms of compensation from investment product providers or financial institutions. I believe that some things are just not for sale.
* I spend an inordinate amount of time observing the markets, similar to a scientist observing an experiment. In this case it is a social experiment, entitled "capital markets." My goal in observing the markets is to be in harmony with the markets.
* Most of what I do is risk management through Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA). GTAA is an investment strategy that attempts to exploit short-term market inefficiencies and manage risk by allocating assets amongst numerous non-correlated markets, and constantly rebalancing into those areas that are working and away from those that aren't.
* Yes, I use charts. Charts are factual observations that convey the current and historical state of the market. What's most intriguing is seeing relationships change. When markets start to price things differently. This is when risks and opportunities are at their greatest.
If you're curious to learn more please check out our website at www.rockhavencapital.com or drop me a note.
So, What Are The Markets Telling Us?
Today's disruptions in the financial markets are not your garden variety market fluctuations caused by a slow-down in corporate growth. It is not cyclical, it is secular and structural. It is an overdue recognition that the global economy faces an uncertain future that involves slower growth, and greater government regulation. Structural problems require structural solutions. Unfortunately, most of the worlds political systems are set up for short-term fixes, not long-term structural solutions. That is why you frequently see weekend emergency meetings, where the fall-back solution continues to be ... "throw more money at it."
Investment Considerations:
Where do we stand?
US Equities -- Neutral, but moving towards Bearish
Int'l Equities -- Bearish for EAFE and Neutral for emerging markets
US REITs -- Bullish
Int'l REITs -- Bearish
Gold -- Bullish
Commodities -- Bearish
US Fixed Income -- Bullish
Int'l Fixed Income -- Bearish
Cash -- Increases to 31.5%.
Last Friday my darling wife decided that I needed to get reacquainted with whats really important, so we opened a good bottle of red, and watched "A Good Year". Excellent movie about a greedy bastard banker who finds his soul. Highly recommended.
Be careful out there,
Chris Wiles
This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
No comments:
Post a Comment