Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Yes Virginia There Is A Santa Claus ... Rally

Tis the season for hope. 
Our markets have recently morphed from Risk On/Risk Off to Hope On/Hope Off. 
It's Christmas time, tis the season to put our worries on the back shelf and suspend our disbelief. 

Thanks to Art Cashin of UBS for reacquainting us with Virginia's original letter:

A Needed Seasonal Note - As we all hopefully recall, young Virginia O’Hanlon wrote to the New York Sun in 1897 to inquire if there really was a Santa Claus. Herewith - the letter and response.

DEAR EDITOR: I am 8 years old. Some of my little friends say there is no Santa Claus. Papa says, 'If you see it in THE SUN it's so.' Please tell me the truth; is there a Santa Claus?

VIRGINIA O'HANLON.
115 WEST NINETY-FIFTH STREET

VIRGINIA, your little friends are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age. They do not believe except [what] they see. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds. All minds, Virginia, whether they be men's or children's, are little. In this great universe of ours man is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect, as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole of truth and knowledge.

Yes, VIRGINIA, there is a Santa Claus. He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! how dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus. It would be as dreary as if there were no VIRGINIAS. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light with which childhood fills the world would be extinguished.

Not believe in Santa Claus! You might as well not believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to watch in all the chimneys on Christmas Eve to catch Santa Claus, but even if they did not see Santa Claus coming down, what would that prove? Nobody sees Santa Claus, but that is no sign that there is no Santa Claus. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that's no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.

You may tear apart the baby's rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance, can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, VIRGINIA, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding.

No Santa Claus! Thank God he lives, and he lives forever. A thousand years from now, Virginia, nay, ten times ten thousand years from now, he will continue to make glad the heart of childhood.

OK, those of you who've been faithful readers know I have a very long list of concerns (the naughty list). This list not only applies to financial markets, but also toward social and political issues. But for the next several days I'm going to suspend those concerns and hopefully embrace this Santa Clause rally. Those concerns will quickly make themselves known as we enter the New Year. Until then I'll leave you with a little humor and a wish for a very Merry Christmas.














































































Be careful out there, and keep the lights on,




Chris Wiles, CFA
412-260-7917


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This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of the Rockhaven Capital Management.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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